For a number of years I have been developing a trading strategy which I have tweaked and modified until it reached a point in February 2018 where I felt comfortable enough to go public with my results after a 3 month incubation period. The strategy is based on late goals in football matches and I developed a method based on a combination of historical statistics as well as in-play momentum to create a system which on a weekly basis is providing me around 30 trading opportunities for which I am averaging a win rate of between 50-55% and where my profitable trades outweigh my losing trades on average by 2.75:1

The key to my success is my data analysis approach. Its easy just to pick events involving the usual suspects but what I have found is that if you go for usual suspects, even during the later stages, you still have to deal with inflated price action where the value vs. time ratio doesn't bode well for long term consistent profits. Therefore a fundamental component of the trading strategy is ensuring that the win rate and reward to risk ratio produces a positive expectancy system with an expectation value that fluctuates between 0.75 - 1.0. (Click here for more details on calculating expectation).


The key to success in trading is the ability to accept losing a battle whilst knowing you are winning the war

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